The 2024 presidential race could hinge on the second-choice preferences of third-party voters, according to a recent analysis. Before the last debate, third-party voters were seen as President Biden’s secret weapon, potentially tipping an even race in his favor. Polls conducted in December showed that when third-party voters were forced to choose between Biden and Trump, Biden was the preferred choice. However, after the recent debate, Biden’s poor performance has led to a shift in these voters’ support, with Trump now leading among them.
A recent poll indicates that 61% of third-party voters are open to changing their minds, compared to only 12% of Trump voters. Additionally, a large majority of third-party voters believe that both the Democratic and Republican conventions will not change their minds. The data suggests that both Biden and Trump have lost the support of these voters, with many calling for their respective parties to replace them as nominees.
In past elections, third-party voters have had a significant impact on the outcome, potentially costing a candidate the election. With Trump currently ahead in national and swing state polls, it is crucial for Biden to win back the support of third-party voters if he hopes to secure victory in 2024. The question remains, who will these voters ultimately support, and could their second-choice preferences determine the outcome of the election.
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