Vice President Kamala Harris has seen marginal gains or maintained steady betting odds for the 2024 Presidential election, with U.S. bookmakers unable to legally take action. Post-debate polling showed Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania, and she also expanded her lead at offshore betting houses. Trump decided against further debates with Harris after a significant loss in Philadelphia. The current betting odds for Harris range from -125 to even money, while Trump’s odds vary from even to +110.
Compared to past elections, Harris holds the narrowest lead over Trump among recent Democratic nominees at both the 50 and 75-days-until-election milestones. At the 50-day mark, Harris had odds of -110 compared to Trump’s +116. This is narrower than the spread between Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2016, where Clinton had a wider margin at the same point. In terms of the 75-day mark, Harris also has a narrower lead over Trump compared to Clinton’s lead over Trump in 2016.
In the last three elections, including the current one, the candidate with the narrower odds at the 50-day mark has won the election. This suggests that Harris may have a stronger chance of winning in 2024 based on the current betting trends. However, it is important to note that betting odds are not a perfect indicator of election outcomes and can fluctuate over time.
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