Historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting the outcomes of presidential elections, still believes that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will defeat Republican rival Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Despite Harris’ leads in battleground states narrowing and polls being close, Lichtman maintains his prediction made in September. He criticizes the focus on polling in the media, arguing that governing, not campaigning, is a better indicator of the potential winner. Lichtman’s prediction is based on 13 keys, which he has used consistently in the past. He acknowledges that unforeseen events could potentially change the outcome, but he stands by his prediction. In a recent interview with his son, Lichtman expressed concerns about the state of democracy in the country and the importance of the upcoming election. Despite his confidence in his prediction, he admits to feeling anxious about the outcome, referring to a “flock of crows” in his stomach. Ultimately, Lichtman believes that history and his consistent method provide a solid basis for his prediction, and he remains steadfast in his belief that Harris will emerge victorious in the election.
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