Patriots Favored for No. 1 NFL Draft Pick, Analytics Predict
Despite not holding the worst record in the NFL, the New England Patriots are currently favored to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, according to analytics expert Aaron Schatz. As the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy and the creator of the DVOA metric, Schatz revealed during an appearance on “Eye on Foxborough” that the Patriots have a 19% chance of clinching the top draft position as they head into Week 12.
With a record of 3-8, the Patriots are currently ranked No. 6 in the race for the first pick, trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9), Tennessee Titans (2-8), Cleveland Browns (2-8), New York Giants (2-8), and Las Vegas Raiders (2-8). Schatz emphasized that while the odds are narrowly in favor of the Patriots, the competition remains fierce among several struggling teams.
Schatz projected that the Patriots might finish the season with four wins but noted the possibility of ending up with as few as three. He suggested that if the team were to land the first overall pick, a trade could be advantageous, allowing them to acquire additional assets for future building efforts.
Moreover, Schatz argued that achieving a record of 5-12 could foster a more positive winning culture compared to a disappointing 3-14 finish. He maintained that the urgency for the top pick diminishes when a team already has an established quarterback situation.
The analytics predictions take into account the team’s strength of schedule, calculated through simulations run 25,000 times to determine outcomes based on their current DVOA, plus home field advantages. As the landscape of the season continues to unfold, the Patriots’ draft endeavors remain a critical point of discussion for fans and analysts alike.
Source
Photo credit www.masslive.com
